One of the strangest—and most divisive—fights to come along in years is finally upon us when Manny Pacquiao faces Antonio Margarito tomorrow night for a dubious junior middleweight title at Dallas Cowboys Stadium.
There are enough questions surrounding this event to make deciphering the plot of The Big Sleep seem like a cinch. Featuring a disgraced former welterweight star, Margarito, against a boxer who won his first title at flyweight, this fight, set at 150 pounds, has so many subplots surrounding it that anything seems possible.
One of the key uncertainties concerns just how much Antonio Margarito, 38-6 (27), has left after suffering a debilitating beating at the hands of Shane Mosley in early 2009. In the omniscient minds of many observers–who must have powerful Ouija boards at their sides at all times–Margarito is practically walking on his heels at this point. Unfortunately, his being completely worn out has not been proven where it counts most: in the ring. Yes, Mosley left him reeling like a drunk tank detainee in Tijuana, but does that mean that Margarito should be assembling snowglobes at home? Although he is coming off of a shutout over game but hapless Roberto Garcia last May, Margarito did not look particularly good in notching a comeback win. His managers claim that Margarito was just trying to shake the rust from his suspension off and avoid taking risks with a possible Pacquiao fight looming.
But at 32, with countless brawls in his rear view mirror, Margarito is closer to the end than he is to the beginning, but to be considered completely shot is probably a stretch. With nearly 60 fights under his belt and fighting above his best weight, Pacquiao, General Santos City, Cotabato del Sur, Philippines, has also shown wear and tear and a certain amount of vulnerability recently. Miguel Cotto got to him early and Joshua Clottey scored whenever he raised enough courage to throw punches. He is also beginning to bust up in fights and his new habit of covering up and letting his opponent run off combinations may indicate that he is slowing down somewhat.
Whether he deserves it or not, Margarito, who has fought only once since being drawn and quartered by Shane Mosley, has been presented the opportunity of a lifetime, and he will do his best to seize it–violently–and try to restore an image as tarnished as that of Judas Iscariot or Quisling. Simply put, if Margarito, Tijuana, Mexico, is not a ramshackle version of his previous self, then there might actually be a competitive fight in Dallas tomorrow night.
Video footage of his sparring sessions seems to indicate that Margarito will be holding his hands up a little higher, moving his head a little more, and perhaps stepping in behind a jab more often than usual. Still, unless he has also worked on shortening the wide arc of his blows, Margarito is an easy target to hit. Part of his success in the past was an uncanny ability to absorb flush shots from hard punchers without being discouraged. Until Shane Mosley nearly dematerialized him, Margarito took lashing blows from Kermit Cintron, Miguel Cotto, Daniel Santos, Paul Williams, and Joshua Clottey. With pronounced physical advantages over his opponent—4 1/2 inches in height and 6 inches in reach—Margarito seems to believe that Pacquiao is too small to hurt him. When Pacquiao weighed in today at an eye-opening 144.6 pounds, Margarito must have seen his belief transformed into a certainty.
For his part, Pacquiao, 51-3-2 (38), will dart in and out, throw blistering combinations, circle his opponent, and repeat this brutal fandango over and over again for as long as he can. If he decelerates, lounges on the ropes, or invites Margarito to tee off on him in center ring in a show of bravado, then he is at risk of being caught by shots from a fighter who may outweigh him by as much as 20 pounds by the time the opening bell rings. It remains to be seen if Pacquiao can absorb a hard combination from a fighter who will probably be a super middleweight come fight night. Trying to find out, of course, would be a mistake.
Until now, Pacquiao has been practically indefatigable in the ring, but tomorrow night he will be carrying roughly 15 pounds more than he did at his peak as a junior lightweight. Margarito is not the kind of fighter who will allow you to take breaks in the ring; his high-pressure style–often ragged but always bruising–is withering in its intensity. And unlike Miguel Cotto and Joshua Clottey, neither of who are infighters, Margarito will take advantage of Pacquiao in close quarters if Pacquiao decides to filibuster there. He has to work as hard as possible, particularly to the body, during lulls in order to offset disadvantages in technique and talent.
Not only will Margarito be facing a faster, more skillful opponent, but he will be facing a faster, more skillful southpaw. Three of his defeats have come against southpaws, and one lefty—Daniel Santos-even wobbled Margarito. In fact, Santos seemed to trouble him so much in the early rounds that Margarito switched stances to offset a disadvantage. Like in many of his best performances, Margarito worked his way back into the Santos fight until a cut forced a technical decision to be rendered.
Because Pacquiao, 31, throws so many punches in bursts, there is a good possibility that Margarito will spend a lot of time on his back foot, taking punishment, or trying to parry blows. Since he is not the most skilled counterpuncher in the world, Margarito will have to try to punch in between the combinations of one of the fastest boxers in the world. That will open him up to being strafed with pinpoint shots, but it will be his only chance to score the upset. Little by little Margarito ought to be able to close the gap on Pacquiao, and this might force some heavy exchanges between the two. If Margarito can make it to that point, then we will have all the answers we need.
In the end, Pacquiao is probably too fleet-footed and quick-fisted for Margarito. Although it is not the guarantee that paying taxes is, Pacquiao ought to be able to survive a scare here or there and score a clear decision over Margarito.
Source: http://thecruelestsport.com
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